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Through games of Mar 11, 2018.


Eastern Illinois

Conference:OVC
Expected RPI:262.0
Current RPI:262
Expected SOS:225
Current SOS:225
Current Record:10-19
Expected Record:10-19
Current Conf Record:8-12
Expected Conf Record:8-12
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-5
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:2-7
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:8-5
Current OOC Record:2-7
Expected OOC Record:2-7
Expected OOC RPI:306
Expected OOC SOS:255



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
10-19262.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Eastern Illinois.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-11Nebraska (56.0)B10A72-68L0%0.0
11-15Western Illinois (302.0)SumA56-54L0%0.0
11-17IUPUI (294.0)HorzH80-79W100%0.0
11-20San Diego St. (62.0)MWCA94-63L0%0.0
11-27Marquette (58.0)BEA86-83L0%0.0
12-1Bradley (105.0)MVCA67-56L0%0.0
12-6Green Bay (303.0)HorzA59-57L0%0.0
12-16South Alabama (270.0)SBA63-52L0%0.0
12-19Western Illinois (302.0)SumH78-77W100%0.0
12-28Murray St. (48.0)OVCA80-52L0%0.0
12-30Austin Peay (164.0)OVCA70-54L0%0.0
1-4Morehead St. (292.0)OVCA52-61W100%0.0
1-6Eastern Kentucky (271.0)OVCA53-54W100%0.0
1-11Tennessee St. (189.0)OVCH65-69L0%0.0
1-13Belmont (81.0)OVCH66-75L0%0.0
1-18Tennessee Martin (306.0)OVCH80-60W100%0.0
1-20Southeast Missouri St. (257.0)OVCH74-86L0%0.0
1-25Belmont (81.0)OVCA81-59L0%0.0
1-27Tennessee St. (189.0)OVCA50-47L0%0.0
2-1Jacksonville St. (149.0)OVCH56-75L0%0.0
2-3Tennessee Tech (158.0)OVCH79-71W100%0.0
2-8SIU Edwardsville (287.0)OVCA74-78W100%0.0
2-10Austin Peay (164.0)OVCH69-76L0%0.0
2-15Southeast Missouri St. (257.0)OVCA80-73L0%0.0
2-17Tennessee Martin (306.0)OVCA57-64W100%0.0
2-22Murray St. (48.0)OVCH66-76L0%0.0
2-24SIU Edwardsville (287.0)OVCH68-56W100%0.0
2-28Tennessee St. (189.0)OVCN71-73W100%0.0
3-1Austin Peay (164.0)OVCN73-66L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Eastern Illinois's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Eastern Illinois's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Eastern Illinois.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Eastern IllinoisOVC26.5726.5736.6436.64-7.10-7.10
Austin PeayOVC6.016.0148.1548.15-0.22-0.22
Tennessee St.OVC5.895.8944.0044.00-0.71-0.71
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC4.544.5432.1432.14-1.62-1.62
BelmontOVC4.424.4270.9770.971.851.85
Murray St.OVC4.374.3781.4881.482.752.75
Southeast Missouri St.OVC4.324.3237.0437.04-1.12-1.12
Tennessee MartinOVC4.304.3029.6329.63-1.75-1.75
Western IllinoisSum3.543.5431.8231.82-1.29-1.29
Jacksonville St.OVC2.752.7561.2961.290.620.62
Tennessee TechOVC2.742.7456.6756.670.370.37
Morehead St.OVC2.652.6523.0823.08-1.43-1.43
Eastern KentuckyOVC2.632.6332.1432.14-0.94-0.94
IUPUIHorz1.971.9733.3333.33-0.66-0.66
BradleyMVC1.841.8458.0658.060.300.30
Green BayHorz1.841.8431.0331.03-0.70-0.70
South AlabamaSB1.781.7837.9337.93-0.43-0.43
San Diego St.MWC1.751.7566.6766.670.580.58
MarquetteBE1.721.7258.0658.060.280.28
NebraskaB101.721.7267.7467.740.610.61
LipscombASun0.260.2668.9768.970.100.10
MilwaukeeHorz0.240.2448.3948.39-0.01-0.01
PurdueB100.230.2382.3582.350.150.15
Southern IllinoisMVC0.230.2359.3859.380.040.04
South Dakota St.Sum0.220.2280.0080.000.130.13
DetroitHorz0.210.2120.0020.00-0.12-0.12
Wright St.Horz0.210.2171.8871.880.090.09
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.200.2076.6776.670.110.11
Fort WayneSum0.200.2050.0050.000.000.00
EvansvilleMVC0.200.2050.0050.000.000.00
IllinoisB100.200.2041.9441.94-0.03-0.03
Northern KentuckyHorz0.180.1868.9768.970.070.07
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.180.1851.6151.610.010.01
TroySB0.170.1745.1645.16-0.02-0.02
Nebraska OmahaSum0.170.1724.1424.14-0.09-0.09
Western KentuckyCUSA0.170.1769.7069.700.070.07
Miami OHMAC0.160.1645.1645.16-0.02-0.02
ButlerBE0.160.1660.6160.610.030.03
OaklandHorz0.150.1557.5857.580.020.02
DenverSum0.140.1446.4346.43-0.01-0.01
North Dakota St.Sum0.140.1441.3841.38-0.02-0.02
Oral RobertsSum0.140.1428.5728.57-0.06-0.06
South DakotaSum0.140.1473.3373.330.070.07
StetsonASun0.140.1428.5728.57-0.06-0.06
ChattanoogaSC0.140.1425.8125.81-0.07-0.07
VanderbiltSEC0.140.1437.5037.50-0.03-0.03
CreightonBE0.140.1464.5264.520.040.04
MarshallCUSA0.120.1269.7069.700.050.05
Kennesaw St.ASun0.120.1228.5728.57-0.05-0.05
Alabama St.SWAC0.120.1225.8125.81-0.06-0.06
KansasB120.120.1279.4179.410.070.07
Cleveland St.Horz0.120.1232.3532.35-0.04-0.04
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.120.1250.0050.000.000.00
Youngstown St.Horz0.120.1220.0020.00-0.07-0.07
Saint LouisA100.120.1250.0050.000.000.00
UMKCWAC0.120.1227.5927.59-0.05-0.05
Mississippi St.SEC0.120.1265.6265.620.040.04
Illinois St.MVC0.110.1153.1253.120.010.01
Chicago St.WAC0.110.113.333.33-0.10-0.10
ValparaisoMVC0.110.1143.3343.33-0.01-0.01
WisconsinB100.110.1145.4545.45-0.01-0.01
ProvidenceBE0.110.1161.7661.760.020.02
AmericanPat0.100.1020.0020.00-0.06-0.06
CanisiusMAAC0.090.0965.6265.620.030.03
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.090.0956.2556.250.010.01
TexasB120.090.0957.5857.580.010.01
Arkansas St.SB0.090.0930.0030.00-0.04-0.04
Florida A&MMEAC0.090.0924.2424.24-0.05-0.05
LSUSEC0.090.0954.8454.840.010.01
MaristMAAC0.090.0919.3519.35-0.05-0.05
Alabama A&MSWAC0.090.099.689.68-0.07-0.07
Oklahoma St.B120.090.0957.5857.580.010.01
UNC AshevilleBSth0.090.0961.2961.290.020.02
VirginiaACC0.090.0993.9493.940.080.08
XavierBE0.090.0984.8584.850.060.06
Central MichiganMAC0.090.0953.3353.330.010.01
Georgia SouthernSB0.080.0861.2961.290.020.02
Louisiana MonroeSB0.080.0846.4346.43-0.01-0.01
Fresno St.MWC0.080.0863.3363.330.020.02
NevadaMWC0.080.0879.4179.410.050.05
New MexicoMWC0.080.0854.5554.550.010.01
Indiana St.MVC0.080.0837.9337.93-0.02-0.02
DePaulBE0.080.0835.4835.48-0.02-0.02
DrakeMVC0.080.0848.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.080.0884.3884.380.060.06
St. John'sBE0.080.0846.8846.88-0.01-0.01
VillanovaBE0.080.0888.2488.240.060.06
TCUB120.080.0865.6265.620.030.03
Iowa St.B120.070.0741.9441.94-0.01-0.01
Central ArkansasSlnd0.060.0650.0050.000.000.00
AkronMAC0.060.0641.9441.94-0.01-0.01
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.060.0640.0040.00-0.01-0.01
AuburnSEC0.060.0678.1278.120.030.03
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.060.0614.2914.29-0.04-0.04
Kansas St.B120.060.0666.6766.670.020.02
Louisiana TechCUSA0.060.0648.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Montana St.BSky0.060.0636.6736.67-0.02-0.02
SouthernSWAC0.060.0641.9441.94-0.01-0.01
GonzagaWCC0.060.0688.2488.240.040.04
Washington St.P120.060.0638.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Appalachian St.SB0.060.0641.9441.94-0.01-0.01
Coastal CarolinaSB0.060.0637.9337.93-0.01-0.01
Georgia St.SB0.060.0668.7568.750.020.02
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.060.0680.6580.650.040.04
MississippiSEC0.060.0637.5037.50-0.01-0.01
Oregon St.P120.060.0650.0050.000.000.00
Little RockSB0.060.0620.0020.00-0.03-0.03
Northern IllinoisMAC0.060.0636.6736.67-0.01-0.01
Air ForceMWC0.060.0634.4834.48-0.02-0.02
Boise St.MWC0.060.0673.3373.330.030.03
Colorado St.MWC0.060.0632.2632.26-0.02-0.02
San Jose St.MWC0.060.0610.3410.34-0.04-0.04
UNLVMWC0.060.0660.6160.610.010.01
WyomingMWC0.060.0659.3859.380.010.01
GeorgiaSEC0.050.0554.5554.550.000.00
IndianaB100.050.0551.6151.610.000.00
GeorgetownBE0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
MichiganB100.050.0579.4179.410.030.03
MinnesotaB100.050.0546.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Missouri St.MVC0.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
Northern IowaMVC0.050.0546.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Penn St.B100.050.0561.7661.760.010.01
RutgersB100.050.0542.4242.42-0.01-0.01
Seton HallBE0.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
UTSACUSA0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
VermontAE0.050.0578.7978.790.030.03
Houston BaptistSlnd0.050.0510.7110.71-0.04-0.04
PepperdineWCC0.050.0516.1316.13-0.04-0.04
SeattleWAC0.050.0556.6756.670.010.01
WashingtonP120.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
Virginia TechACC0.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
Ball St.MAC0.030.0358.0658.060.000.00
Charleston SouthernBSth0.030.0342.8642.86-0.00-0.00
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
JacksonvilleASun0.030.0337.9337.93-0.01-0.01
Norfolk St.MEAC0.030.0343.3343.33-0.00-0.00
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.030.0345.4545.45-0.00-0.00
RiceCUSA0.030.0317.2417.24-0.02-0.02
Bowling GreenMAC0.030.0346.6746.67-0.00-0.00
FIUCUSA0.030.0337.9337.93-0.01-0.01
La SalleA100.030.0340.6240.62-0.01-0.01
MaineAE0.030.0313.3313.33-0.02-0.02
MissouriSEC0.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
New OrleansSlnd0.030.0342.8642.86-0.00-0.00
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.030.0343.7543.75-0.00-0.00
Southern MissCUSA0.030.0340.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Texas St.SB0.030.0341.9441.94-0.00-0.00
Texas TechB120.030.0372.7372.730.010.01
TulaneAmer0.030.0345.1645.16-0.00-0.00
UT ArlingtonSB0.030.0360.6160.610.010.01
Arizona St.P120.030.0364.5264.520.010.01
CaliforniaP120.030.0325.8125.81-0.01-0.01
DaytonA100.030.0345.1645.16-0.00-0.00
FurmanSC0.030.0367.7467.740.010.01
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.030.0316.6716.67-0.02-0.02
McNeese St.Slnd0.030.0332.0032.00-0.01-0.01
Sacramento St.BSky0.030.0316.6716.67-0.02-0.02
San DiegoWCC0.030.0356.6756.670.000.00
Utah St.MWC0.030.0348.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Boston CollegeACC0.030.0355.8855.880.000.00
BuffaloMAC0.030.0375.7675.760.010.01
DelawareCAA0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Delaware St.MEAC0.030.036.676.67-0.02-0.02
HowardMEAC0.030.0325.8125.81-0.01-0.01
IowaB100.030.0342.4242.42-0.00-0.00
Long Beach St.BW0.030.0341.9441.94-0.00-0.00
MarylandB100.030.0358.0658.060.000.00
Michigan St.B100.030.0387.8887.880.020.02
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.030.0353.3353.330.000.00
North DakotaBSky0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
North TexasCUSA0.030.0343.3343.33-0.00-0.00
NorthwesternB100.030.0345.1645.16-0.00-0.00
Ohio St.B100.030.0375.0075.000.010.01
RichmondA100.030.0337.5037.50-0.01-0.01
SamfordSC0.030.0326.6726.67-0.01-0.01
Savannah St.MEAC0.030.0343.3343.33-0.00-0.00
UCFAmer0.030.0359.3859.380.010.01
USC UpstateASun0.030.0310.7110.71-0.02-0.02
VCUA100.030.0354.5554.550.000.00
Weber St.BSky0.030.0360.7160.710.010.01
Wichita St.Amer0.030.0378.1278.120.020.02